the oscars

2015 Oscar Predictions

So the 2015 Academy Awards are almost upon us.  On February 22nd, the biggest names in Hollywood will line up to see who is taking home the industries most prized possessions.  It has been an incredible year for movies, and that is highlighted by the great fields in almost every major category.  The other great thing about this year is that we’ve got some extremely tight races in a number of the biggest categories, with Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor In A Leading Role all up in the air.  So to help you fill out your Oscar bracket, here are our Movie Melt predictions for the 2015 Oscars.

Happy Oscar Season!

Best Picture

“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”

This should be an incredibly exciting category this year.  The obvious argument would be that either Boyhood or Birdman are going to take home Best Picture, as Boyhood got the award at the Golden Globes, but now Birdman has taken home top honors at a number of other events like the SAG’s and the PAG which came as a surprise.  But you see the success that American Sniper and The Imitation Game are having, and the power of Selma is clear too.  Chances are slim, but it wouldn’t be a slap in the face if Whiplash or The Theory of Everything made a run.  There’s really not much separating these films right now, which gives me the ability to include my opinion in here a little.  If I go with the current two favorites, I’d say my money would be on Birdman and should that come true, I’d say it will be well deserved.

Will Win: Birdman/Boyhood

Should Win: Birdman

Dark Horse: Selma

Snubbed: Nightcrawler, A Most Violent Year

Actor in a Leading Role

Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

A pretty strong category here.  Would have liked to see David Oyelowo in here for Selma and Jake Gyllenhaal deserved a look for his manic role in Nightcrawler.  Miles Teller was even worthy in my book, but his time will come.  Anyway, I’d say the favorite is Michael Keaton but Eddie Redmayne has been killing it at the other ceremonies and playing Stephen Hawking as he did is a remarkable feat.  It’s really, really, really hard to pick this one to be honest.  I’d put my money on Keaton right now, simply because voters might see his future chances being limited.  This is his role.  So if you were going to put your house on it, I’d say roll with Keaton.  Bradley Cooper has been talked about as a dark horse, but I think most of that buzz is based on the Box Office and the swirling controversy.

Will Win: Michael Keaton

Should Win: Michael Keaton

Dark Horse:  Eddie Redmayne

Snubbed: David Oyelowo

Actress in a Leading Role

Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

I’d say this is one of the most clear categories out of the big ones.  Julianne Moore most likely has this locked up for her first Oscar win.  If anyone could pose any kind of challenge it might be Felicity Jones, even though there was some early buzz for Reese Witherspoon.  Jennifer Aniston might have had a better chance than the other four to be honest.  Go with Julianne, she deserves it.

Will Win: Julian Moore

Should Win: Julian Moore

Dark Horse: Felicity Jones

Snubbed: Jennifer Aniston

Actor in a Supporting Role

Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

Another pretty clear cut one, or at least as clear cut as these things can get.  There’s been some sneaky talk about Edward Norton, and he was fantastic, but J.K. Simmons has dominated this category at every single award ceremony of note, and it is truly his moment to break through.  I’d be extremely surprised if this was not a clear cut victory for Simmons, with his portrayal of the maniacal music teacher with the foulest mouth at this years awards.

Will Win: J.K. Simmons

Should Win: J.K. Simmons

Dark Horse: Edward Norton

Snubbed: Josh Brolin

Actress in a Supporting Role

Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Laura Dern, “Wild”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”

Emma Stone is the only real challenge to Patricia Arquette here I’d say, and that’s probably generous due to the fact that I love Emma Stone.  Arquette has been cleaning up and should continue to do so here.  This is actually not the strongest category this year, and Meryl Streep gets in by default.  I have her in as a dark horse, because she basically is a contender as long as she’s alive.  But if she pulls it home this year, I might call it quits.

Will Win:  Patricia Arquette

Should Win: Patricia Arquette

Dark Horse: Emma Stone/Meryl Streep

Snubbed: None

Directing

Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”

This category is a clear one on one battle between Linklater and Iñárritu.  I’m a huge fan of Linklater, but quite frankly Boyhood was not his best film in my opinion.  It was fantastic but Birdman was clearly the best film of the year for me, and much of that was due to it’s director and his unique style.  It’s been a mixed bag, and I am simply selecting Iñárritu as my prediction because I’m predicting a win for Birdman.   But should Boyhood take home the crown, Linklater might be the front runner.  This is also setting up for a textbook split season, the rare occurrence when a director wins despite not getting Best Picture.  Someone could well get Affleck’d here, and if it happens I would guess that Birdman would take the Best Picture, with Linklater winning Best Director due to his abnormal 12 year film making fear.  For my taste, a win for Linklater would be based somewhat on a gimmick, albeit a good one.  We’ll see!

Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu

Should Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu

Dark Horse: Richard Linklater

Snubbed: Ava DuVernay

Writing – Adapted Screenplay

Jason Hall, “American Sniper”
Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Inherent Vice”
Anthony McCarten, “The Theory of Everything”
Damien Chazelle, “Whiplash”

This is a very unpredictable category here.  Inherent Vice is a long shot, but the others have pretty solid chances.  I’d be surprised if American Sniper got the award, largely because of the questions about the subject material that have come up recently.  But it could happen.  The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game both have very good chances, but somehow I have a feeling that Damien Chazelle is going to get awarded with one of the surprises of the night for Whiplash.  It was an incredible film, and will certainly deserve the award, as would the others.

Will Win: The Imitation Game

Should Win: Whiplash

Dark Horse: The Theory of Everything

Snubbed: Gone Girl

Writing – Original Screenplay

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Dan Gilroy, “Nightcrawler”

I’d say Birdman will be the one here, but The Grand Budapest Hotel has gotten a lot of talk for this one.  Rightfully so, as it is as unique and beautifully written as most of Wes Anderson’s work.  Boyhood and Birdman could battle this one out too as well, so another scenario could be that this award follows Best Picture to one of those two.  A huge surprise, but actually a refreshing one, might be a win for Dan Gilroy with Nightcrawler, but I’d be surprised.  I don’t see Foxcatcher as a contender here either.

Will Win: Birdman

Should Win: Birdman

Dark Horse: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Snubbed: Mr Turner

Animated Feature Film

“Big Hero 6”
“The Boxtrolls”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”
“Song of the Sea”
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya”

This should have been The LEGO Movie.  No doubt.  But, no point crying over spilled milk, so it appears that How To Train Your Dragon might become only the second animated sequel to ever win, the first being Toy Story 3.  If they Academy opts not to let this feat repeat itself, I guess I’d say either Big Hero 6 or Song of the Sea stand to benefit.

Will Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Dark Horse: Big Hero 6

Snubbed: The LEGO Movie

Cinematography

Emmanuel Lubezki, “Birdman”
Robert D. Yeoman, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lynzewski, “Ida”
Dick Pope, “Mr. Turner”
Roger Deakins, “Unbroken”

To me this has to go to Birdman and it’s cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki.  It was a cinematic work of art like nothing that has been made before and it was flawless in every way in this department.  Mr. Turner was a beautiful film also, and Wes Anderson’s weird style gives Yeoman a small chance, but it’d be a mighty shame if Birdman doesn’t take this one home in a landslide.

Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki

Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki

Dark Horse: Dick Pope

Snubbed: Hoyte van Hoytema, Bradford Young

I’ll leave out my details analysis for the rest of the categories, but picks are below:

Costume Design

Milena Canonero, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Mark Bridges, “Inherent Vice”
Colleen Atwood, “Into the Woods”
Anna B. Sheppard, “Maleficent”
Jacqueline Durran, “Mr. Turner”

Will Win: Into The Woods

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Dark Horse: Inherent Vice

Snubbed: A Most Violent Year

Documentary Feature

“Citizenfour”
“Last Days in Vietnam”
“Virunga”
“The Salt of the Earth”
“Finding Vivian Maier”

Will Win: Citizenfour

Should Win: Citizenfour

Dark Horse: Virunga

Snubbed: Life Itself

Documentary Short Subject

“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
“Joanna”
“Our Curse”
“The Reaper”
“White Earth”

Will Win: 

Should Win:

Dark Horse:

Snubbed:

Film Editing

Joel Cox and Gary Roach, “American Sniper”
Sandra Adair, “Boyhood”
Barney Pilling, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
William Goldenberg, “The Imitation Game”
Tom Cross, “Whiplash”

Will Win: Boyhood

Should Win: Boyhood

Dark Horse: Whiplash

Snubbed: Nightcrawler

Foreign Language Film

“Ida”
“Leviathan”
“Tangerines”
“Wild Tales”
“Timbuktu”

Will Win: Ida

Should Win: Wild Tales

Dark Horse: Leviathan

Snubbed: Mommy

Makeup and Hairstyling

Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard, “Foxcatcher”
Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White, “Guardians of the Galaxy”

Will Win: Foxcatcher

Should Win: Any

Dark Horse: Any

Snubbed: Into The Woods

Music – Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Imitation Game”
Hans Zimmer, “Interstellar”
Gary Yershon, “Mr Turner”
Jóhann Jóhannsson, “The Theory of Everything”

Will Win: The Theory Of Everything

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Dark Horse: The Imitation Game

Snubbed: Selma

Music – Original Song

“Everything Is Awesome” by Shawn Patterson, “The LEGO Movie”
“Glory” by Common and John Legend, “Selma”
“Grateful” by Diane Warren, “Beyond the Lights”
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond, “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
“Lost Stars” by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois, “Begin Again”

Will Win: Glory

Should Win: Glory

Dark Horse: Everything Is Awesome

Snubbed: Mercy Is

Production Design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Production design: Adam Stockhausen, Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“The Imitation Game,” Production design: Maria Djurkovic, Set Decoration: Tatiana Macdonald
“Interstellar,” Production design: Nathan Crowley, Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
“Into the Woods,” Production design: Dennis Gassner, Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Mr. Turner,” Production design: Suzie Davies, Set Decoration: Charlotte Watts

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Dark Horse: Mr. Turner

Snubbed: Birdman

Short Film – Animated

“The Bigger Picture,” Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees
“The Dam Keeper,” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi
“Feast,” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed
“Me and My Moulton,” Torill Kove
“A Single Life,” Joris Oprins

Will Win:

Should Win:

Dark Horse:

Snubbed:

Short Film – Live Action

“Aya,” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis
“Boogaloo and Graham,” Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney
“Butter lamp,” Hu Wei and Julien Féret
“Parvaneh,” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger
“The Phone Call,” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas

Will Win:

Should Win:

Dark Horse:

Snubbed:

Sound Editing

“American Sniper,” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
“Birdman,” Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies,” Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
“Interstellar,” Richard King
“Unbroken,” Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

Will Win: American Sniper

Should Win: Birdman

Dark Horse: Interstellar

Snubbed: Guardians of the Galaxy

Sound Mixing

“American Sniper,” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
“Birdman,” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
“Interstellar,” Garry A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
“Unbroken,” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
”Whiplash,” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

Will Win: American Sniper

Should Win: Whiplash

Dark Horse: Birdman

Snubbed: Guardians of the Galaxy

Visual Effects

“Captain America: Winter Soldier,” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
“Guardians of the Galaxy,” Stephanie Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould
“Interstellar,” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
“X-Men: Days of Future Past,” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer

Will Win: Interstellar

Should Win: Interstellar

Dark Horse: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Snubbed: Godzilla

birdman oscars
Birdman will be looking to take home a ton of awards, notably Best Picture and Best Actor for Michael Keaton.

 

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One comment

  1. pssst.. best supporting actress should have had Jessica Chastain in it. Wouldn’t it be so damn wonderful if Whiplash won? I would scream! I truly would! As is, I’m praying to the award gods it’s Birdman..ha!

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